若金銀、美債與道指失守這幾個關鍵點位，后果將是毀滅性的..（3月30日）

注：本文原發于深度星球北京時間3月28日的Tactical Positioning專欄，部分內容已刪減，完整版可在文末獲取。

Sean's take : https://t.zsxq.com/aUUD2

“原油端面臨的嚴峻斷供危機正將 WTI 油價推向 100 美元的敏感關口。這種持續的能源通脹預期，不僅迫使全球長端國債收益率加速飆升，更使得美元指數逼近危險的 100-101 區間。一旦美元在此企穩，勢必將對全球權益資產估值與宏觀流動性造成毀滅性的去杠桿打擊。

與此同時，美股大盤已全面滑向“生死邊緣”。標普 500 指數遺憾失守 6.55K 的關鍵陣地，若短期內無法收復，下行趨勢將徹底確立；而納指則在跌破并受阻于 24.2K 后，面臨著極深度的回調風險。

在避險端，飆升的收益率與強勢美元的組合正在大幅削弱黃金的危機溢價。金價在跌穿 4.7-4.75K 趨勢線后，目前正于 4K 這一不容有失的多空生命線附近艱難尋底，一旦實質性跌破將面臨災難性后果...

Trump TACO'd on Monday morning. Oil was dumped to the low 80s, while NQ gained almost 1,000 handles in minutes. However, the market is tired of Trump's lies, and the spike was entirely erased before the market opened on Friday.

特朗普在周一早間又上演了 TACO 戲碼。原油被拋售跌至 80 出頭，而納指期貨100期貨指數在幾分鐘內飆升了近 1000 點。但市場已經厭倦了特朗普的謊言，這波拉升在周五開盤前已經被全數抹去。

Note that Trump pulled a similar TACO move on Thursday right after the market closed by extending the strike deadline by 10 more days. This spike was much smaller than the Monday spike, when Trump extended the strike deadline by 5 days, and it was immediately sold off.

值得注意的是，特朗普在周四收盤后故技重施，再次采取了類似的 TACO 舉動，將打擊期限延長了 10 天。這次引發的拉升幅度遠小于周一（當時他將期限延長了 5 天），而且漲幅同樣很快就被市場賣回去。

In past TACO moves, the market almost always gave Trump the benefit of the doubt when he extended the deadline. Sometimes, we even saw the market trade above the level it was at before the conflict began after he TACO'd. We all know the U.S. has lost this war unless it decides to launch a ground invasion.

在過去的 TACO 舉動中，只要特朗普延長最后期限，市場幾乎總是會選擇相信他。有時我們甚至會看到在他在 TACO 之后，市場價格反而超過了沖突爆發前的水平。我們都清楚，除非美國決定發動地面入侵，否則這場戰爭美國已經輸了。

WTI was once again hovering around the key 100 level as of the market close on Friday. Dozens of countries have run out of oil reserves, and dozens more are weeks, if not days, away from running out. The situation will only get worse in April. See the chart below from JPM.

截至周五收盤，WTI 原油再次在關鍵的 100 關口附近徘徊。已有數十個國家的石油儲備已經耗盡，另有數十個國家的儲備距離耗盡僅剩幾周甚至幾天的時間。4 月的情況只會更糟。下方這張摩根大通的圖就能說明問題。

圖1：來自波斯灣與東南亞的石油流向——摩根大通

Oil prices start to converge after Trump TACO'd on Monday.

特朗普在周一上演了 TACO 戲碼后，油價開始收斂。

圖2：全球原油基準價格（日線，截至2026-03-27）

The 100 level remains a strong ST resistance that CL must break to sustain upside momentum. The next resistance sits around its recent high near 120. Meanwhile, a break below the recent low of 84 would most likely indicate real progress in a ceasefire deal.

100 關口依然是強勁的短期阻力位，WTI原油期貨（CL）必須突破該位置才能維持上行動能。下一個阻力位在其近期高點附近，大約 120 一帶。與此同時，如果跌破近期84的低點，則極有可能預示著停火協議取得了實質性進展。

圖3：WIT原油（CL）（日線，截至2026-03-27）

Brent's technicals remain stronger than WTI's, as the U.S. does not rely on the Middle East to meet its oil demand.

布倫特原油的技術面依然強于 WTI 原油，因為美國并不依賴中東來滿足其石油需求。

圖4：布倫特原油（BZ）（日線，截至2026-03-27）

After breaching below the trendline support around 4.7-4.75K, gold entered freefall and found a bottom at 4.1K, 100 handles above the major trendline support. As I noted long ago, gold tends to outperform before and after a crisis, but not during one.

在跌破 4700-4750 附近的趨勢線支撐后，黃金進入自由落體狀態，并在 4100 處觸底，該位置比那條主要趨勢線支撐高出 100 個點。正如我很久之前指出的那樣，黃金往往在危機爆發前和危機結束后表現優異，但在危機期間則不然。

This played out very well for us, as we were able to both catch the rally all the way to the very top and short at the very top. I also warned once again about an imminent selloff when gold rallied back to 5.4K.

這一點在我們過去的交易中得到了完美印證，我們不僅吃到了全程的上漲利潤，還在最高點成功做空。當黃金反彈回 5400 時，我也曾再次警告拋售即將到來。

Gold tends to show strong positive correlations to risk assets when a crisis hits, and then decouples at some point and outperforms thereafter. The Iran conflict still has a very large effect on gold's path, as a continued conflict will keep oil prices elevated, and therefore inflation and inflation expectations elevated, which leads to higher long-end yields, a selloff in long-duration assets such as the Magnificent 7, and a stronger dollar as deleveraging progresses. Both higher yields and a stronger dollar do not bode well for a bullish gold thesis.

當危機來襲時，黃金往往會先與風險資產表現出強烈的正相關性，隨后在某個節點脫鉤，并在此后跑贏大盤。伊朗沖突依然對黃金的走勢有著巨大的影響，因為沖突若持續，油價將保持高位，進而推高通脹和通脹預期，這會導致長端收益率上升、引發長久期資產（如科技七巨頭 M7）的拋售，并在去杠桿推進過程中強化美元。收益率上升和美元走強，對黃金的多頭邏輯來說都不是好兆頭。

If the situation starts to stabilize, and gold manages not to break below the vital support around 4K, then if it manages to climb above the recent support-turned-resistance around 4.55K and another resistance around 4.65K, we could see gold rally from there to make a new ATH.

如果局勢開始企穩，且黃金能夠守住 4000 附近這一關鍵支撐，那么只要它重新站上此前支撐（如今已轉為阻力的 4500 附近，以及更上方 4650 附近的另一道阻力），我們就有機會看到黃金由此展開的反彈，并創出歷史新高。

Note that 4K is very, very important for gold to sustain any upward move. A clean break below it would be devastating for gold.

需要注意的是，4000 對于黃金維持任何上行趨勢都極其、極其重要。一旦被干凈利落地跌破，對黃金將是毀滅性的打擊。

圖5：黃金（日線，截至2026-03-27）

Note that silver bounced from its major trendline support on Monday. Similar to gold, a break below silver's major trendline would be devastating, as we would likely see a move back into the 50s.

需要注意的是，白銀在周一從其主要趨勢線支撐位反彈。與黃金類似，跌破主要趨勢線對白銀將是毀滅性的，因為我們很可能會看到它重新回到 50 多的區間。

On the upside, 72 remains the ST resistance, as silver has struggled to break above it over the past few days. We need to see a clean break above 80 to signal more upside.

上行方面，72 仍然是短線阻力位，因為過去幾天白銀一直難以突破該位置。我們需要看到價格有效突破 80，才能確認更多上行空間。

圖6：白銀（日線，截至2026-03-27）

After breaching the lower bound of the box support, copper has struggled to reclaim it. Unless it reclaims the key 5.55 resistance, momentum remains to the downside.

銅在跌破箱體支撐的下軌后，一直難以將其收復。除非它能重新站上 5.55 的關鍵阻力位，否則動能依然向下。

圖7：銅期貨（HG）（日線，截至2026-03-27）

DXY needs to sit above 100-101 for a few days to see more upside. Should it occur, we'd see a collapse in equities.

美元指數（DXY）需要在 100-101 上方企穩幾天，才能看到更多的上行空間。如果出現這種情況，股市將迎來一輪明顯下挫。

圖8：美元指數（日線，截至2026-03-27）

Yields worldwide continue to explode to the upside, as we expected. Higher oil prices for longer -> higher inflation expectations -> higher long-end yields -> lower equity multiples, especially for long-duration names such as the M7.

正如我們所預期的那樣，全球收益率繼續向上爆發。“油價在更長時間內保持高位-通脹預期抬升-長端收益率走高-股市估值倍數下殺”（），這對于長久期標的（如科技七巨頭 M7）尤為不利。

As long as the war continues and the Strait of Hormuz is not back in business, we should expect higher oil prices and higher yields across the globe.

只要戰爭還在繼續，且霍爾木茲海峽的航運未恢復正常，我們就應預期全球范圍內將會出現更高的油價和更高的收益率。

圖9：美國2年期國債收益率（日線，截至2026-03-27）

圖10：美國10年期國債收益率（日線，截至2026-03-27）

Note that the US 30Y has broken above resistance. If it doesn't fall back below it, the consequences could be devastating.

值得注意的是，美國 30 年期國債收益率已經向上突破阻力位。如果它不回落至該水平下方，后果可能會極其慘烈。

圖11：美國30年期國債收益率（日線，截至2026-03-27）

圖12：德國10年期國債收益率（日線，截至2026-03-27）

圖13：法國10年期國債收益率（日線，截至2026-03-27）

圖14：英國10年期國債收益率（日線，截至2026-03-27）

圖15：加拿大10年期國債收益率（日線，截至2026-03-27）

圖16：韓國10年期國債收益率（日線，截止2026-03-27）

圖17：日本10年期國債收益率（日線，截至2026-03-27）

圖18：波動率指數（VIX）（日線，截至2026-03-27）

“我也許來早了，但我沒有錯。”——《大空頭》

圖19：SPX生命線（月線，截至2026-03-27）

圖20：SPX生命線（周線，截至2026-03-27）

As I mentioned before, Trump cares about only four things: 1) stock market performance; 2) Treasury yields; 3) inflation expectations; and 4) his approval ratings. If you look at past TACOs, the majority of them happened precisely when either Treasury yields hit an intolerable level or SPX dropped to a key support that had to be defended. As the greatest market manipulator of all time, he understands the significance of key levels just like we do.

正如我之前提到的，特朗普只關心四件事：1）股市表現；2）美債收益率；3）通脹預期；以及 4）他的支持率。如果你回顧過去的 TACO 時刻，就會發現其中的絕大多數都恰好發生在美債收益率觸及他難以忍受的水平，或者 SPX 跌至某個必須死守住的關鍵支撐位之時。作為史上最偉大的市場操縱者，他跟我們一樣清楚關鍵點位的重要性。

SPX broke below the key 6.55K level last Friday, and futures tanked further before the market opened on Monday. To fix this, Trump extended the strike deadline on Iran by 5 days before Monday's open, and NQ gained 1,000 handles in just minutes.

SPX 指數上周五跌破了 6550 點的關鍵水平，而在周一開盤前，期貨進一步大跌。為了救場，特朗普在周一開盤前將對伊朗的打擊最后期限延長了 5 天，結果NQ在短短幾分鐘內飆升 1000 點。

More interestingly, abnormal buying in equity futures and selling in oil futures were spotted minutes before the announcement. This was, without a doubt, insider trading that generated hundreds of millions in profit in just 20 minutes. The beauty of technical analysis is that we don't need insider information to know where the money is flowing.

更有趣的是，在公告發布前幾分鐘，市場上出現了期指的異常買盤和原油期貨的異常賣盤。毫無疑問，這是內幕交易，而且僅僅在 20 分鐘內就創造了數億美元的利潤。技術分析最美妙的地方就在于，我們并不需要內幕信息，就能知道資金流向何處。

After Monday's open, I posted a desk note on Trump's TACO move and stayed bearish on equities despite the headlines. The gist was that the price action from that TACO, despite its intimidating magnitude, did not bring about any structural change to our outlook. On Thursday and Friday, the market accelerated to the downside.

周一開盤后，我在交易臺筆記里發布了一篇關于特朗普這次 TACO 舉動的點評，并在鋪天蓋地的頭條新聞面前依然維持對美股的看空立場。核心邏輯是，盡管這次 TACO 引發的行情聲勢駭人，但并沒有對我們的整體結構判斷造成任何改變。到了周四和周五，市場下跌開始加速。

Momentum remains to the downside unless SPX reclaims 6.55K.

除非 SPX 重新站上 6550 點，否則動能依然向下。

圖21：標普500指數（SPX）（日線，截至2026-03-27）

As expected, NDX extended to the downside after posting a clean break below the key support around 24.2K last week. Despite Trump's efforts to pump the market, NDX was rejected at 24.2K from below from Monday through Wednesday.

正如預期的那樣，NDX 在上周干凈利落地跌破 24200 點附近的關鍵支撐后，本周繼續向下延伸。盡管特朗普試圖托市，但從周一到周三，NDX 在反抽 24200 點下方時均遭到拒絕（承壓回落）。

圖22：納斯達克100指數（NDX）（日線，截至2026-03-27）

People called me crazy when I first shared this chart back in January. Unless we see a material shift in the Iran conflict, this remains the most probable path from here.

今年 1 月我第一次分享這張圖表時，很多人都覺得我瘋了。除非我們在伊朗沖突中看到實質性的轉變，否則這依然是后市最有可能的演變路徑。

圖23：納斯達克100指數（NDX）（日線，截至2026-03-27）

Dow bounced precisely from our support minutes before the close on Friday. 45K should act as solid ST support. A clean break below would be devastating. I expect a bounce from this level. A break below 45K opens the door to 42K, after which comes 38K.

道指（Dow）在周五收盤前幾分鐘，精準地從我們給出的支撐位展開反彈。45000 點應該會構成堅實的短線支撐。一旦有效跌破，后果將是毀滅性的。我預計價格會從這里出現反彈。若跌破 45000 點，則將打開下探 42000 點的大門，再往下看則是 38000 點。

圖24：道瓊斯工業平均指數（DJI）（日線，截至2026-03-27）

圖25：道瓊斯工業平均指數（DJI）（1分鐘線，截至2026-03-27）

更多后續討都在深度星球了...

我們將在深度交易星球同步更新內部的實時交易和市場評論等面板。

星球的定位是在一年訂閱期內，由Sean執筆對應Tactical Positioning欄目，專注美股、債券等美盤內容。屬于我們的任務是處理虧損而非盈利，因為盈利自己會照顧好自己。

深度星球加入鏈接：https://t.zsxq.com/aUUD2

Sean‘s take：https://t.zsxq.com/LvoAV

更多歷史內容：

本文所涉及一切內容僅供分享參考，接收人不因閱讀本文而被視為我方客戶，也不構成向任何人發出出售或購買證券或其他投資標的的邀請，更不構成交易依據。市場有風險，投資需謹慎，本文所有信息及觀點均不構成任何投資建議；過往業績不代表未來表現，投資者應依據自身風險承受能力進行審慎評估、獨立決策并自行承擔全部責任。任何情況下，我方均不對因使用本文內容而產生的任何損失承擔責任。相關數據可能存在滯后或誤差，我方不對信息的完整性及準確性承擔法律責任。