當(dāng)人民幣成為一種“安全資產(chǎn)” 260422

注：本文原發(fā)于跨資產(chǎn)星球北京時間4月20日的內(nèi)容。本文僅摘取第二部分「房價拐點」，完整版可在文末獲取。

3 月，中國銀行代客辦理的跨境人民幣收付達(dá)到 9.5 萬億元，這是歷史上第一次超過 8 萬億元，單月同比增長約 30%。更關(guān)鍵的是，人民幣在全部跨境支付中的占比升至 56.4%，而美元占比降至 39.8%，首次跌破 40%。這組數(shù)字的意義非常重大，因為它表明，人民幣在中國相關(guān)跨境支付中的使用，已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了結(jié)構(gòu)性抬升。

In March, cross-border renminbi receipts and payments handled by Chinese banks on behalf of clients reached RMB 9.5 trillion. This was the first time in history that the figure exceeded RMB 8 trillion, with year-on-year growth of roughly 30% for the month. More importantly, the renminbi's share of total cross-border payments rose to 56.4%, while the U.S. dollar's share fell to 39.8%, dropping below 40% for the first time. The significance of these numbers is very large because they show that the use of the renminbi in China-related cross-border payments has already seen a structural rise.

第二組最重要的數(shù)據(jù)來自 CIPS。CIPS 交易量的提升，說明人民幣國際化也體現(xiàn)在實際清算基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施被更高頻地使用。當(dāng)前，CIPS 已有 194 家直接參與者和 1597 家間接參與者。3 月，日均交易量達(dá)到 9205 億元，較 2 月增長 48.5%，單日峰值更是首次突破 1.22 萬億元。

The second most important set of data comes from CIPS. The rise in CIPS transaction volume shows that renminbi internationalization is also showing up in the more frequent use of actual clearing infrastructure. CIPS now has 194 direct participants and 1,597 indirect participants. In March, average daily transaction volume reached RMB 920.5 billion, up 48.5% from February, while the single-day peak exceeded RMB 1.22 trillion for the first time.

圖：三月人民幣跨境支付出現(xiàn)了歷史級別抬升

3 月跨境人民幣支付的突然上升，部分原因可能來自貿(mào)易流向的變化。比如，中國減少了通常以美元結(jié)算的海灣國家原油進(jìn)口，同時增加了太陽能板、電動車等更可能以人民幣結(jié)算商品的出口。換句話說，貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)本身正在為人民幣創(chuàng)造更多使用場景。更深一層的邏輯在于，石油美元體系原本就在松動。中東石油現(xiàn)在主要賣給亞洲，而非美國；俄羅斯和伊朗受制裁的石油，也越來越多地繞開美元軌道進(jìn)行交易。當(dāng)前這場沖突，可能進(jìn)一步暴露石油美元體系的裂縫，因為它同時動搖了市場對美國海灣地區(qū)安全保護(hù)傘穩(wěn)定性的預(yù)期。

Part of the sudden rise in cross-border renminbi payments in March may have come from changes in trade flows. For example, China reduced imports of Gulf crude that are typically settled in dollars, while increasing exports of solar panels, electric vehicles, and other goods that are more likely to be settled in renminbi. Put differently, the trade structure itself is creating more use cases for the renminbi. At a deeper level, the petrodollar system was already loosening. Middle Eastern oil is now sold mainly to Asia rather than to the United States, and sanctioned oil from Russia and Iran is increasingly being traded outside the dollar orbit. The current conflict may further expose the cracks in the petrodollar system because it simultaneously weakens confidence in the stability of the U.S. security umbrella in the Gulf.

一個月的時間仍然太短，遠(yuǎn)不足以判斷石油美元體系是否已經(jīng)進(jìn)入趨勢性逆轉(zhuǎn)。現(xiàn)階段，仍然不能排除這些變化只是短期現(xiàn)象。不過，若油價沖擊最終推動全球進(jìn)一步從油氣轉(zhuǎn)向可再生能源，而這些新能源相關(guān)產(chǎn)品的供給又繼續(xù)主要由亞洲制造商，尤其是中國制造商主導(dǎo)，那么人民幣在國際層面的使用空間，可能會在貿(mào)易維度進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大。換句話說，在這一輪沖擊中，人民幣國際化既可能受益于能源結(jié)算方式的變化，也可能受益于能源轉(zhuǎn)型本身。

One month is still far too short to judge whether the petrodollar system has already entered a trend reversal. At this stage, it still cannot be ruled out that these changes are merely short-term phenomena. However, if the oil-price shock ultimately pushes the world further from hydrocarbons toward renewable energy, while supply in those new-energy products continues to be dominated by Asian manufacturers, especially Chinese manufacturers, then the renminbi's room for international use may widen further along the trade dimension. In other words, in this round of shock, renminbi internationalization may benefit both from changes in the way energy is settled and from the energy transition itself.

比地緣政治本身更重要的，是人民幣在這一輪全球波動中的穩(wěn)定性。真正讓人民幣國際化得以加速的核心條件，是人民幣匯率和人民幣利率在極端波動環(huán)境中的穩(wěn)定表現(xiàn)。

More important than geopolitics itself is the renminbi's stability during this round of global volatility. The real core condition allowing renminbi internationalization to accelerate is the stable performance of the renminbi exchange rate and renminbi interest rates under an extreme-volatility environment.

圖：人民幣在這場沖突中的核心優(yōu)勢是穩(wěn)定

沖突爆發(fā)后，市場曾重新討論“什么資產(chǎn)才算真正的安全資產(chǎn)”。黃金、日元、美債這些傳統(tǒng)避險資產(chǎn)，在沖突初期其實都出現(xiàn)了價格波動甚至回撤，這使得很多投資人和企業(yè)開始重新定義安全資產(chǎn)的概念。人民幣并沒有大幅升值，但它的波動區(qū)間顯著更窄，這在企業(yè)和機(jī)構(gòu)看來反而更實用。人民幣是二十國集團(tuán)貨幣里最穩(wěn)定的幣種之一。雖然人民幣在這次沖突中并不是對美元升值最多的貨幣，但人民幣對美元的波動區(qū)間明顯窄于其他主要貨幣。對真正做跨境結(jié)算和資產(chǎn)負(fù)債管理的企業(yè)來說，穩(wěn)定性往往比短期升值更重要。

After the conflict broke out, the market reopened the discussion of what actually counts as a true safe asset. Traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, the yen, and U.S. Treasuries all saw price volatility and even pullbacks in the initial phase of the conflict, causing many investors and corporates to rethink the definition of a safe asset. The renminbi did not appreciate sharply, but its trading range was materially narrower, and for corporates and institutions that was in fact more practical. The renminbi is one of the most stable currencies in the G20. Although it was not the currency that appreciated the most against the U.S. dollar during this conflict, its volatility range against the dollar was clearly narrower than that of other major currencies. For companies actually engaged in cross-border settlement and asset-liability management, stability is often more important than short-term appreciation

第二個關(guān)于穩(wěn)定性的證據(jù)來自利率。沖突期間，多數(shù)二十國集團(tuán)國家的 10 年期國債收益率上升了 30 到 50 個基點，而中國 10 年期國債收益率幾乎沒有變化。這一點非常重要，因為它意味著，人民幣資產(chǎn)在匯率和利率兩個維度上都表現(xiàn)得更像一個低波動錨，從而提升了企業(yè)和金融機(jī)構(gòu)使用人民幣作為結(jié)算貨幣和融資貨幣的意愿。

The second piece of evidence on stability comes from interest rates. During the conflict, 10-year government-bond yields in most G20 economies rose by 30 to 50 basis points, while China's 10-year government-bond yield barely moved. This matters greatly because it means renminbi assets behaved more like a low-volatility anchor on both the FX side and the rates side, which in turn raises the willingness of corporates and financial institutions to use the renminbi as both a settlement currency and a funding currency.

圖：伊朗戰(zhàn)爭期間，人民幣利率幾乎沒有變化

同樣，全球性意外沖擊最容易壓縮的，是借款人的融資窗口和融資確定性。相比之下，人民幣市場在沖突期間運行平穩(wěn)，這使得境外借款人更愿意將人民幣債券市場視為可用的融資渠道，而不只是政策驅(qū)動下的選擇。最直接的融資證據(jù)來自熊貓債。3 月熊貓債發(fā)行達(dá)到 380億元，創(chuàng)下歷史新高，同比接近增長兩倍，較 2025 年月均發(fā)行量高出 150%。這意味著，境外主體在岸人民幣融資已經(jīng)明顯加速。離岸人民幣債發(fā)行同樣在放量。3 月點心債發(fā)行達(dá)到1140 億元，同比增長 173%，較 2025 年月均發(fā)行量高出約 50%。這表明，無論在岸還是離岸，人民幣債券融資都在同步提速。對于人民幣國際化而言，這一點非常關(guān)鍵，因為若支付貨幣的國際化不能伴隨其融資貨幣功能同步增強，其國際使用的可持續(xù)性就會受到約束。

Likewise, what global surprise shocks most easily compress is borrowers' funding window and funding certainty. By contrast, the renminbi market remained stable during the conflict, making overseas borrowers more willing to view the renminbi bond market as a usable funding channel rather than merely a policy-driven choice. The most direct funding evidence comes from panda bonds. March panda-bond issuance reached RMB 38 billion, a record high, nearly triple year on year and 150% above the 2025 average monthly issuance. That means onshore renminbi funding by foreign entities has already accelerated materially. Offshore renminbi bond issuance expanded at the same time. March dim-sum bond issuance reached RMB 114 billion, up 173% year on year and about 50% above the 2025 average monthly issuance. This shows that renminbi bond funding, onshore and offshore alike, is accelerating simultaneously. For renminbi internationalization, that is crucial, because if the internationalization of the payment currency is not matched by strengthening of its funding-currency function, the sustainability of its international use is constrained.

換句話說，人民幣正在某種層面上成為一種安全資產(chǎn)。這里的含義不同于傳統(tǒng)避險貨幣。它并不是說人民幣一定會在危機(jī)中升值最多，而是說，在一個高波動的世界里，人民幣提供了企業(yè)和機(jī)構(gòu)最需要的兩樣?xùn)|西：一條可預(yù)期的匯率路徑，以及一個穩(wěn)定的本幣融資環(huán)境。

Put differently, the renminbi is, on some level, becoming a safe asset. The meaning here is different from that of a traditional haven currency. It does not mean the renminbi must appreciate the most during a crisis. It means that in a high-volatility world, the renminbi provides the two things corporates and institutions need most: a predictable exchange-rate path and a stable local-currency funding environment.

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