申宇婧：未來五年，低空經濟將成國際競爭關鍵

編者按：4月28日，中國人民大學重陽金融研究院宏觀研究部副主任、副研究員申宇婧在中國日報發表英文文章表示，低空經濟是未來五年關系到我國獲取國際競爭力、形成國際競爭優勢的關鍵產業。從空間資源開發、經濟引擎培育到應用場景落地，低空經濟正推動中國從陸地經濟向三維立體經濟轉型，并在智能制造、人工智能、新基建等領域釋放巨大潛力。現將中文譯文及英文原文發布如下：（中文譯文約2600字，預計閱讀時間7分鐘）

2023年12月，中央經濟會議提出“打造生物制造、商業航天、低空經濟等若干戰略性新興產業”，首次明確了低空經濟的產業屬性。2024年，低空經濟被首次寫入政府工作報告，提出“積極打造生物制造、商業航天、低空經濟等新增長引擎”。2025年，低空經濟被首次寫入“十五五規劃”，提到“加快新能源、新材料、航空航天、低空經濟等戰略性新興產業集群發展。”可見，我國已經明確將低空經濟作為戰略性新興產業，“十五五”期間，低空經濟將得到大力發展。

低空經濟作為戰略性新興產業，具備新空間拓展、新技術創新、新場景推廣、新產業培育等多重“新”特點，發展潛力巨大。

一是空間資源開發潛力巨大。低空經濟的發展意味著人類生產生活創造的價值空間將由陸地向天空延伸，由二維向三維轉變，空間資源會同土地資源一樣被開發利用，空間也有望成為新的生產要素。目前，我國空域管理以軍航為主導，民航航路航線外的低空空域基本處于未利用狀態。我國空域開放比例、通用航空飛行小時、基礎設施建設密度等表征低空利用率的指標與美歐相比，存在一定的差距。美國是低空資源開發的全球典范。其空域管理體制成熟，除少數禁區、限制區外，絕大部分空域對通用航空開放，其通用航空年產值超過萬億美元，貢獻了百萬級別的就業崗位。隨著我國政策的放開與空域管理體制的成熟，低空經濟的空間資源存在被大量激發的潛能。

二是經濟引擎開發潛力巨大。低空經濟的產業鏈條長，產業融合效應明顯，不僅是數字產業化，也是產業數字化的典型代表。依托人工智能、5G、邊緣計算等技術，發展智能無人機、eVTOL（電動垂直起降飛行器）等新型航空器，形成低空經濟產業鏈。這是數字產業化。同時低空經濟也是產業數字化的重要突破點。農業數字化、服務業數字化、制造業數字化、物流運輸效率革命都蘊含著巨大的發展契機。其中智能制造非常關鍵，今年是中國制造2025的完成年，也是制造強國戰略第一步的收官之年。接下來，將繼續沿著我國制造強國“三步走”戰略規劃前進，低空經濟將是我國制造強國建設的重要支撐。2022年中國智能制造市場規模已超過5萬億元人民幣，占制造業比重約為17%，與發達國家還有差距。提升智能制造在制造業中的占比超過20%，逐步達到30%的國際領先水平。低空經濟場景將是中國智能制造升級的重要發力點。

三是應用場景落地潛力巨大。低空經濟將數據采集的范圍進行了空間上的大幅拓展，數據的傳輸互動增加了低空和地面的路徑，通過無人機搭載傳感器、攝像頭等設備，實時采集地理信息、氣象數據、交通流量等，數據來源更加立體、多元、豐富。在此基礎之上，低空飛行器（無人機、eVTOL等）產生的海量多模態數據（氣象、地形、交通流量）可通過人工智能實時分析，進行算法優化迭代，以更好地進行飛行線路優化和預警。同時，我國AI的普惠、開源模式，可以促進不同場景下不同業務需求的本地大模型構建，降低低空經濟的發展門檻，促進低空經濟的普惠化發展，低空經濟有望成為AI落地的最前沿戰場。

“十五五”期間是我國低空經濟從“試點探索”邁向“全面深化”和“規模化商用”的關鍵攻堅期與爆發期。中國民航局數據顯示，2030年低空經濟產業整體規模有望達到2萬億元。這意味著“十五五”期間，低空經濟將成為國民經濟名副其實的新增長引擎。

一大批低空經濟“新基建”建成。起降場（Vertiport）將像加油站、充電樁一樣在核心城市、交通樞紐、景區、園區規劃建設。“天空地一體化”的通信、導航、監視（CNS）、指揮網絡等數據平臺基本建成，實現飛行全過程的可感知、可監管、可追溯。“低空航路網絡”基本建成并融入國家綜合立體交通網。

一大批低空經濟新場景涌現。隨著空域資源的開發，低空經濟將催生出大量超越傳統思維和極具想象力的場景，解決目前物理空間限制下的一些作業難題。例如，搭建生命通道“高速路”，建立城市級 “器官移植無人機高速綠色通道” ，以最短直線距離、最高速度直飛目標醫院。

一大批低空經濟新產業形成。低空經濟的產業鏈條更加完善， eVTOL、無人機等設備進入規模化生產階段，形成具備國際競爭力的整機制造商，關鍵部件的國產化率進一步提升，形成低空經濟自主可控、安全可靠的產業鏈體系。在一些細分領域，例如，低空+農林植保，低空+物流，低空+運輸，低空+文旅，低空+消防，低空+救災等可以預見的低空應用場景，將形成較為成熟的產業生態。

低空經濟是未來五年關系到我國獲取國際競爭力、形成國際競爭優勢的關鍵產業。我國具備發展低空經濟產業的諸多優勢，先進的通信技術、完備的產業鏈、巨大的市場需求足以支撐我國低空經濟實現“逆襲式”發展。可以預見，未來五年，我國將以低空經濟為關鍵引擎，在航空航天領域迎來全面而長足的進步。

英文原文

Potential of low-altitude economy is flying high

For decades, China's economic growth has largely unfolded on land — across factory floors, highways and ports. Now the country is turning its gaze upward.

What was once empty airspace below commercial flight paths is the next frontier of industrial expansion.

The so-called "low-altitude economy" — encompassing drones, electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOLs), airborne data platforms and the infrastructure that supports them — is poised to become a pillar of China's next development cycle.

The political signal is unmistakable.

Since 2023, the concept has been elevated from policy discussion to national strategy, written into successive top-level planning documents as well as the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30). In Beijing's industrial lexicon, such placement signals capital mobilization, regulatory reform and coordinated experimentation. In plain terms: the runway is being cleared.

The low-altitude economy is about transforming airspace into a factor of production.

Today, much of China's low-altitude airspace remains underutilized, historically managed with military priorities in mind.

Compared with the United States and Europe, China's proportion of open airspace, general aviation flight hours and density of supporting infrastructure remain relatively modest.

The US offers a useful benchmark. Its mature airspace management system allows general aviation access to the vast majority of airspace outside restricted zones.

General aviation is a major contributor to the US economy and supports a vast employment base. China is not seeking to replicate that model entirely, but the comparison underscores the scale of unrealized potential. As regulatory frameworks evolve and civil-military coordination improves, dormant airspace could become an arena of intense commercial activity.

Airspace alone does not generate growth. The true promise of the low-altitude economy lies in its position at the intersection of digitization and industrial upgrading.

It is both a product of digital industrialization and a catalyst for the digital transformation of traditional sectors.

On the one hand, technologies such as artificial intelligence, 5G connectivity and edge computing are enabling a new generation of intelligent aircraft — from autonomous drones to passenger-grade eVTOLs. These platforms form the backbone of an emerging industrial chain that spans advanced materials, batteries, avionics, sensors and software systems.

On the other hand, low-altitude applications accelerate the digital upgrading of agriculture, logistics, manufacturing and services.

Precision crop monitoring, smart inspection of infrastructure, rapid last-mile delivery and real-time environmental surveillance are not futuristic scenarios; they are commercially viable use cases already taking shape.

This matters in the broader context of China's manufacturing strategy. As the country moves beyond the first stage of its manufacturing power road map, intelligent manufacturing has become a central priority.

Yet the transition toward higher-value, technology-intensive production remains incomplete.

Advancing to the next level will require application-rich environments where advanced equipment, digital systems and industrial software can be deployed, refined and scaled in real-world conditions.

Low-altitude scenarios offer precisely such platforms — practical arenas where intelligent manufacturing can be stress-tested, integrated and upgraded, accelerating China's shift toward more sophisticated, innovation-driven production.

Data is the connective tissue. Drones and eVTOLs equipped with sensors and imaging systems expand the spatial boundaries of data collection, generating high-frequency, multi-modal information on weather, terrain, traffic and infrastructure conditions. When analyzed in real time through AI algorithms, this data enables route optimization, risk prediction and adaptive control.

China's increasingly open and cost-efficient AI ecosystem lowers barriers for localized model development, allowing diverse industries to tailor solutions to specific operational needs. In that sense, the skies may become one of the most practical proving grounds for applied AI.

The next five years will be decisive. By 2030, the overall scale of the low-altitude economy could reach 2 trillion yuan ($290 billion). But headline figures are less important than structural change.

First, infrastructure will proliferate. Much as petrol stations and EV charging points came to define the infrastructure of modern mobility, vertiports will increasingly be woven into core cities, transport hubs, scenic destinations and industrial parks. Integrated communication, navigation and surveillance networks will link air and ground systems, enabling flights to be trackable, manageable and traceable throughout their life cycle.

A dedicated low-altitude route network will gradually be embedded within China's broader three-dimensional transportation grid.

Second, application scenarios will multiply. Once airspace constraints ease, imaginative solutions to long-standing logistical bottlenecks become feasible.

Consider medical emergencies: dedicated urban "green corridors" for organ transport could allow drones to fly the shortest possible route between hospitals, cutting precious minutes from transplant procedures. Similar logic applies to disaster relief, firefighting in high-rise environments, and rapid deployment in remote rural areas.

Third, industrial clusters will consolidate. As eVTOLs and advanced drones move from prototype to mass production, competitive original equipment manufacturers are likely to emerge. Domestic production of key components will increase, strengthening the resilience of supply chains.

In vertical segments such as low-altitude agriculture, logistics, tourism, emergency response and public safety, more mature ecosystems will take shape.

Skeptics may argue that enthusiasm is running ahead of commercial reality. That risk is real. Regulatory complexity, safety standards, public acceptance and cost structures will all shape the pace of adoption.

But China enters this race with distinct advantages: advanced telecommunications networks, a comprehensive industrial base and a vast domestic market willing to test new technologies at scale.

The low-altitude economy is not merely about flying machines. It represents a shift from land-bound expansion to vertical integration of space, data and industry.

If managed prudently, the next five years will see China convert underused airspace into a dynamic growth engine, reshaping not only its aviation sector but the architecture of its broader economy.