北京
注：本文原發于深度星球北京時間4月18日的內容。本文僅摘取部分內容，完整版可在文末獲取。
We have seen some de-escalation after Trump pressured Netanyahu into a ceasefire in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Iran agreed to allow cargo ships to pass through the Strait. Headlines are suggesting a full reopening of the Strait, while our monitors show that the majority of cargo vessels and tankers attempted the crossing but eventually made U-turns, suggesting that Iran remains in de facto control of the Strait and decides which ships can pass. Oil prices have compressed sharply as de-escalation hopes built.
在特朗普施壓內塔尼亞胡在黎巴嫩達成停火后，我們觀察到地緣局勢出現了一定程度的降溫。 與此同時，伊朗同意允許貨船通過海峽。 盡管新聞頭條暗示海峽已全面重新開放，但我們的監測數據顯示，絕大多數貨船和油輪在嘗試穿越時最終都掉頭折返，這表明伊朗事實上仍控制著海峽，并決定著哪些船只可以通行。隨著市場對局勢降溫的預期升溫，油價出現大幅下跌。
圖表1：全球原油基準（Global Crude Benchmarks，日線，截至2026-04-17）
The peace talks that took place last weekend failed, as we expected, but no escalation followed. We saw a big opening gap on Sunday night that pushed WTI above 105, but as de-escalation progressed, WTI closed in the low 80s on Friday. In my last tactical positioning note, published just before the peace talks, I outlined two possible paths for WTI, and it appears that it has chosen the downward one. It is now hanging on to the 81 support level. Once it breaks below that level, we should see a gradual decline into the low 70s.
正如我們預期的那樣，上周末舉行的和平談判以失敗告終，但隨后也沒有出現局勢升級。 周日晚間我們看到了一個巨大的開盤跳空缺口，一度將 WTI 原油推高至 105 以上，但隨著局勢逐步降溫，WTI 在周五收于 80 出頭。 在我于和談前夕發布的tactical positioning中，我概述了 WTI 可能走出的兩條路徑，目前看來市場選擇了向下的一條。當前價格正懸靠在 81 的支撐位上。一旦跌破該水平，我們預計將看到價格逐漸回落至 70 出頭。
圖：4/11 tactical positioning
圖表2：WTI原油期貨（CL，日線，截至2026-04-17）
BZ failed to reclaim the box and headed lower, as we expected.
正如我們預期的那樣，布倫特原油未能重新站回箱體并轉頭向下。
圖表3：布倫特原油期貨（BZ，日線，截至2026-04-17）
圖：4/11 tactical positioning
Gold reclaimed the 4770 resistance following de-escalation news and has backtested 4770 as support from above over the past few sessions. As long as this level holds, we could see it head toward the next major resistance, which is 5K.
隨著局勢降溫的消息傳出，黃金收復了 4770 的阻力位，并在過去幾個交易日中從上方回測了 4770 作為支撐的有效性。只要該水平得以守住，我們預計金價將向下一個主要阻力位 5k 進發。
圖表4：黃金（Gold，日線，截至2026-04-17）
Silver is tangling around the key resistance near 79. If it can hold above it for a few days, we could see it head higher.
白銀目前正糾纏于79附近的關鍵阻力位。如果它能在該水平上方企穩幾天，我們有望看到它進一步走高。
圖表5：白銀（Silver，日線，截至2026-04-17）
Copper continued its upward momentum and is heading toward the upper channel.
銅延續了其上漲動能，正向上方通道運行。
圖表6：銅期貨（HG，日線，截至2026-04-17）
99 remains the key resistance. In the ST, as long as DXY remains below 99, it stays supportive of equities and commodities.
99 仍然是關鍵阻力位。在短期內，只要美元指數保持在 99 以下，就仍對股市和大宗商品構成支撐。
圖表7：美元指數（DXY，日線，截至2026-04-17）
US2Y broke below our key support level around 3.8% on Friday.
周五，美國2年期國債收益率跌破了我們位于 3.8% 附近的關鍵支撐位。
圖表8：美國2年期國債收益率（US2Y，日線，截至2026-04-17）
Unless we see it move back inside the triangle, momentum remains to the upside.
除非我們看到它重新回到三角形內，否則動能依然偏向上行。
圖表9：美國10年期國債收益率（US10Y，日線，截至2026-04-17）
Long-end yields are struggling to break above resistance.
長端收益率在向上突破阻力位時遇到阻礙。
圖表10：美國30年期國債收益率（US30Y，日線，截至2026-04-17）
VIX attempted to break above the key resistance on Monday but failed, as we saw no escalation following the failed peace talks.
周一，由于和平談判失敗后并未出現局勢升級，恐慌指數試圖向上突破關鍵阻力位，但未能成功。
圖表11：波動率指數（VIX，日線，截至2026-04-17）
SPX broke above our line in the sand at 6870 on Monday. As I mentioned in the desk note on 04/14, there were no longer any signs of bearishness: VIX backtested and was rejected by the major trendline. DXY remained below 99, yields were down, oil was down, and bellwether sectors were leading to the upside. The move that followed the clean break above the key 6870 level was fierce to the upside. I think we'll see some pullbacks from the 7200 area next week. Despite the rosy tape and headlines suggesting we are getting close to a peace deal and that the Strait is open, with price going vertical, I would advise caution going forward. I stand by my view that a peace deal will be very hard to reach, as Iran will not give up control of the Strait or its nuclear program. Ship traffic through the Strait remains low, and Iran still decides which ships can pass. Our monitors show that the majority of ships made U-turns after attempting to cross the Strait following Trump's claim that it had reopened. In war, the side that can endure more pain tends to prevail, not the one that can inflict more of it. Equities have rallied hard, oil has been dumped, and yields are back below levels where Trump could pull another wildcard to manipulate the market again. As price goes vertical, stops are paramount to protect your profits.
標普500指數在周一向上突破了我們設定的 6870 這一底線。正如我在 04/14 的交易臺筆記中所提到的，市場已不再有任何看跌的跡象：VIX 回測了主要趨勢線并受阻回落。美元指數維持在 99 以下，收益率下降，油價下跌，而風向標板塊正領漲大盤。在干凈利落地突破 6870 這一關鍵水平后，市場出現了極為猛烈的上沖。我認為下周我們會在 7200 附近區域看到一些回撤。盡管盤面看起來一片樂觀，新聞頭條也暗示我們正接近達成和平協議且海峽已經開放，但在價格呈現垂直拉升的情況下，我建議對接下來的行情保持謹慎。我依然堅持我的觀點，即和平協議將極難達成，因為伊朗不會放棄對海峽或其核計劃的控制權。穿越海峽的船只流量依然很低，且仍然由伊朗來決定哪些船只可以通行。我們的監測數據顯示，在特朗普聲稱海峽已經重新開放之后，絕大多數嘗試穿越海峽的船只都掉頭折返了。在戰爭中，往往是能承受更多痛苦的一方占據上風，而不是更能施加更多痛苦的一方。股市已經大幅反彈，原油遭到拋售，而收益率也回落至特朗普可能再次祭出意外手段操縱市場的水平之下。隨著價格呈垂直式上漲，設置止損對于保護你的利潤至關重要。
圖表12：標普500指數（SPX，日線，截至2026-04-17）
Similar to SPX, NDX showed strong upside momentum after breaking above the key resistance on Monday.
與 SPX 類似，納斯達克100指數在周一突破關鍵阻力位后，展現出了強勁的上行勢頭。
圖表13：納斯達克100指數（NDX，日線，截至2026-04-17）
Dow bounced precisely from our 45K support level.
道瓊斯指數精準地從我們給出的 45K 支撐位反彈。
圖表14：道瓊斯工業平均指數（DJI，日線，截至2026-04-17）
RUT posted a new ATH, as we expected, following a clean break on Monday.
正如我們預期的那樣，羅素2000指數在周一的干凈利落突破之后，創下了歷史新高。
圖：4/11 tactical positioning
圖表15：羅素2000指數（RUT，日線，截至2026-04-17）
圖表16：日經225指數（NIKKEI，日線，截至2026-04-17）
NIFTY bounced off our 22K support and is now facing resistance around 24.4K.
印度 NIFTY 指數從我們的 22K 支撐位反彈，目前正面臨 24.4K 附近的阻力。
圖表17：印度Nifty 50指數（NIFTY，日線，截至2026-04-17）
I expect a pullback from the 67 area.
我預計在 67 附近區域會出現回撤。
圖表18：七巨頭ETF（MAGS，日線，截至2026-04-17）
完整內容訂閱鏈接：Sean' take:https://t.zsxq.com/aUUD2
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